🔗 Share this article

In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the position in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its sixth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: ever since Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a hung parliament split into three warring blocs – left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the next day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team announced the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”